Track Record
Every signal is scored. Every outcome is published. We show the losses alongside the wins. That's how trust works.
Automated scoring against public market data. Wins and losses both published, on a 7-day disclosure delay.
Important: Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data is delayed 7 days. Trading involves risk and you may lose capital. Full disclaimer
By book
Rolling directional accuracy per book, on a 7-day disclosure delay, with live mark-to-market on open positions. The detailed signal-by-signal record below covers the Core book.
Core
LiveML-generated daily signals
ML-generated · 8 models rank 79 symbols · 7 asset classes nightly
Holds ~7 days
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Microcap
LiveIncluded with Signal
Follows insider buying in microcap stocks
Holds ~90 days
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Income
NewIncluded with Signal
Dividend payers + covered-call funds, three risk rungs
Holds quarterly
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Buzz
WatchFree sentiment radar
Tickers climbing Reddit & StockTwits
Holds intraday–days
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The record, the way a fund would show it.
Two live books and one modeled history, labeled honestly, every figure drawn from the published record.
Core · daily signals
Live+13.4%
Live book · every public call
Near the market’s return, at a fraction of the drawdown.
Max drawdown · lower is better
Models re-fit weekly. Published on a 7-day delay.¹
Microcap book
Modeled66.8%
Hit rate · 2006-2026
Spanned the 2008 crisis, COVID, and the 2022 bear.²
Income ladder
Live+23.6%/yr
Live book · payouts included
Payout-inclusive live record of the income ladder.³
Disclosures
¹ Figure from a conservative 20-position, no-leverage construction of every public call, compounded daily; results published on a 7-day delay. Annualized figures are indicative only.
² Hypothetical point-in-time simulation: no lookahead, liquidity-weighted construction, 100 bps costs modeled. Hypothetical results are not indicative of future results.
³ Live, payout-inclusive record of the income ladder (dividend payers plus covered-call funds across three risk rungs); monthly income figures are per $10k deployed and are indicative, not guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calibration report card
When we say a move has a 70% chance, does it rain 70% of the time? Here is every confidence band against what actually happened.
When we said 50%, it happened 67.6% of the time
When we said 60%, it happened 74.1% of the time
When we said 70%, it happened 67.5% of the time
When we said 80%, it happened 90%+ of the time
Excludes unscored calls and suppressed low-confidence calls. Bands that landed above 90% are shown as “90%+”. Core directional book; outcomes on the same 7-day delay as the track record.
About these numbers.The performance shown is a historical record of impersonal, system-generated signals published by The Signal. It is general market commentary for informational purposes only, not investment advice and not tailored to any individual's portfolio, objectives, or circumstances.
The Signal is a publisher. It does not manage money, place orders, or execute or direct trades for subscribers, and it receives no compensation tied to any security. What you do with a signal is entirely your own decision.
Outcomes are shown on a 7-day delay and reflect a modeled entry and exit; your results would differ. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Methodology
How signals are generated
After each market close, 129 validated conditions run across 79 symbols: stocks, ETFs, futures and forex. Machine-learning models rank the surviving candidates by conviction. No human discretion enters signal generation.
Four books
Four independent strategy books, each with its own universe and holding window, from short-horizon core signals to longer-horizon specialized books, plus a free watch-only sentiment radar. Each book's record is tracked separately.
Every signal is scored
Each signal carries a defined forecast window. If price moves in the predicted direction within that window, it's a HIT; if the window expires first, it's a MISS. Nothing is removed: wins and losses are both published.
7-day delay, automated scoring
Every forecast is logged before the open. Scoring is fully automated against public market data (no human judgment in outcome determination) and results publish on a 7-day delay so every signal has resolved first. No retroactive edits.
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